I. Market Prices and Output (Whole March)
- Lithium Prices: Battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 168,000 yuan/ton to 178,000-182,000 yuan/ton (monthly increase ≈ 6%), with a cumulative increase of 72% from the November 2025 low; lithium hydroxide increased by 5.1% month-on-month, with an average price of 192,000-196,000 yuan/ton.
- Drivers: Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports (monthly supply reduction of 12,000 tons LCE), low global inventories, booming energy storage demand, and rush orders ahead of the April export tax rebate rate cut (from 13% to 9%).
- Output: Global output reached 232GWh (month-on-month +19%), with 219GWh coming from China (94.4%, 40.6% from energy storage cells); overseas output stood at 13GWh (month-on-month +36.8%).
II. Industrial Chain Relocation and Overseas Factory Construction (Key in March)
(I) Local Factory Construction in EU and US
Tesla × LG (Mar. 17): An energy storage factory in Michigan, USA, with an investment of 4.3 billion US dollars and an annual capacity of 50GWh, is scheduled to start production in the second half of 2027 to avoid tariffs on batteries imported from China.
LG × GM (Mar. 19): Conversion of an EV production line to energy storage in Tennessee, USA, with an investment of 70 million US dollars and an annual capacity of 8GWh, to be mass-produced in Q2 2026.
ProLogium (Mar. 8): Groundbreaking of a solid-state battery factory in France, with an investment of 5.2 billion euros, 0.8GWh in Phase I (2028) and 48GWh in the long term.
(II) Overseas Expansion of Enterprises
Putailai (Mar. 12): A 50,000-ton anode base in Malaysia, with an investment of 297 million US dollars, is set to start production in Q1 2027.
CATL: Equipment for the 6.9GWh Indonesia production line has arrived (scheduled for production at the end of 2026); its Hungary factory will start mass production in March-April, and its Germany factory is already profitable.
China Innovation Aviation (Mar. 5): Signed an agreement for a 51GWh factory in Portugal; BYD (Mar. 20): Broke ground on a 3GWh battery factory in Vietnam; EVE Energy (Mar. 10): Completed Phase II of its Malaysia energy storage factory.
(III) Resource Country Policies (Affecting Relocation)
Zimbabwe (Mar. 3): Indefinitely suspended lithium ore exports, only allowing exports of deep-processed products. This move affects over 90% of lithium imports to China and increases costs by 15-25%.
Pakistan (Mar. 22): Launched a 2026-2031 battery localization policy, prioritizing LFP batteries to attract foreign investment, including from Chinese enterprises.
III. International Technological Breakthroughs (Frontier in March)
Tesla 4680 Battery: Mass production at the Texas factory (yield 92%), with 25% higher energy density and 20% lower cost; the Shanghai production line will be commissioned in Q2 2026.
Solid-State Batteries: Samsung SDI's fluorine-based gel electrolyte suppresses lithium dendrites (energy density ≈ 1.6 times that of current batteries); Toyota has delayed the installation of all-solid-state batteries until 2028.
Special Technologies: A joint team from China Aerospace and Nankai University developed an ultra-low temperature lithium battery (operable at -70℃); West Lake University developed an anode-free battery (energy density 508Wh/kg).
IV. International Policies and Trade (Key in March)
USA (Mar. 12): Vetoed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on anodes imported from China, maintained 25% tariffs on batteries from China, and promoted nearshore outsourcing.
EU (Mar. 4): Proposed the Industrial Acceleration Act (IAA), requiring foreign capital to account for no more than 49% and mandating localization, with a target of 20% of GDP coming from manufacturing by 2035.
China: Implemented controls on high-performance lithium batteries, which has impacted India's lithium battery industry; Reliance Industries has suspended its 5 billion US dollar battery factory plan.
